While the initiative holds the potential to generate nearly Rs 500 billion annually in foreign exchange, significant questions persist regarding the readiness of cross-border transmission networks and long-term market access.
According to the Ministry of Energy, Water Resources, and Irrigation, Nepal’s total installed power capacity is projected to reach 28,500 MW by 2035. Under this framework, 13,500 MW will be dedicated to domestic consumption—aiming to boost per capita electricity use to 1,500 units—while the remaining 15,000 MW is slated for export.
Financial projections based on recent performance illustrate the scale of the target:
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FY 2082/83 Performance: Nepal earned Rs 29.32 billion by exporting 3.87 billion units of electricity to India and Bangladesh at an average rate of Rs 7.56 per unit.
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Potential Revenue Horizon: Operating 15,000 MW of export capacity at an average 50 percent capacity factor would allow for roughly 65.7 billion units of annual exports. At current average pricing, total power sales could hit approximately Rs 497 billion (Rs 5 trillion over a decade).
However, experts emphasize that reaching these figures requires synchronized development across generation, internal grid systems, and cross-border infrastructure. Accessing regional markets remains complex; for instance, Nepal’s current 40 MW export agreement with Bangladesh relies directly on Indian transmission infrastructure.
To support these long-term targets, the strategy aims to expand national substation capacity to 40,000 MVA by 2035, supported by a Rs 70 billion government budget allocation in FY 2083/84 specifically for transmission and distribution upgrades.
Policy alignments also require fine-tuning, as official government programs previously cited a 30,000 MW decade target compared to the strategy’s 28,500 MW draft baseline. Ministry officials noted that the framework is still being finalized to address key bottlenecks in securing long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and ensuring cross-border grid readiness.
